What lies ahead ?

• Conservative win in the UK- no change for Scotland

  This is the envisaged nightmare scenario for Scotland. A Conservative Govt re-elected by England, rejected by Scotland, promising a continuation of unpopular arrogant policies. The demand for constitutional change in Scotland is now so strong that an obstructive Tory Govt could possibly push the Scots to take direct action to regain democracy. Civil disobedience campaigns by frustrated democrats would be very likely, and the tension following a fifth Labour defeat would probably lead to a major split with many supporters moving to the nationalist camp.
  
  

• Labour win in the UK

  Assuming that Mr Blair does not U-turn on his pledge for Scottish Devolution, and assuming that this package is successfully negotiated through a traditionally hostile Westminster (in the last 100 years, 34 Scottish Home Rule bills have been presented - ALL have failed), we then have the prospect of elections to a Scottish Assembly.
  
  This Assembly (according to details released on 18 Oct 95) would have 129 proportionally elected members. One elected from each of the 73 Scots constituencies, topped up by 56 members selected from Party lists, to ensure a measure of proportionality. This Assembly would have no control over economic policy, foreign policy, oil revenues, VAT receipts, income tax receipts or nuclear policy and would be dependent on a grant from Westminster for its funding. It would also be powerless to prevent a future Westminster Government from abolishing it.
  
  Assuming a clear passage through Westminster, the elections would be held in 1997/98 at the earliest, though more likely in 1999. In any event this should be mid-term for an incumbent Labour Govt. Traditionally mid-term Governments are highly unpopular, and this could potentially provide a large swing to the SNP. If Labour were to try and delay elections for a Scottish Assembly (having promised to introduce it as soon as possible) it might be considered cheap politicking, and could equally rebound on them.
  
  

• Scotland votes for Independence

  This is not as fanciful as detractors would suggest. To achieve a majority of SNP MPs in Scotland (37) would require about 40% of the popular vote. Currently (Oct 95) the SNP is standing at 30% in opinion polls, up 8% from January (Labour in Scotland have slipped 11% since January). In simple terms you are talking about motivating another 200,000 Scots to vote for the SNP and achieve positive change. Contrast that with Labour needing to convince over 3 million English voters to gain power. Why should Scotland need to rely on England to deliver what we need ?
  
  Assuming 37 SNP MPs, the Scottish Parliament, in abeyance since 1707, will reconvene and negotiations will start with Westminster. After negotiations are complete we register the agreement with the UN, while remaining part of the European Union. A referendum on a written constitution takes place. Within a month of a referendum, a new PR General Election is held to elect an independent Scottish Parliament.
  
  Then and only then, free from the constant battle to protect Scottish interests against Westminster, can Scotland realise its full potential. All our energy can be turned into rejuvenating the country. Scotland's many assets will be used to target the fight against poverty and poor housing. Pensions will be raised to European levels, VAT on domestic fuel will be cut to 5% (with the eventual aim of abolition). Scotland will be rid of the nuclear menace (imagine Trident Submarines on the Thames ?) Health Service privatisation will be stopped, and all 3-4 year olds will be provided with nursery education.
  
  In short, we will become a more socially just country. Just as our other neighbours, Denmark, Norway and Sweden have been for years. The only limitation on the potential of Scotland will be our own hands, rather than having those hands tied behind our back by Westminster.

I would like to help campaign and raise funds for the Scottish National Party .

---

The only hope for a future that does not depend on Westminster's decision, is for an Independent sovereign Scottish Parliament, freely elected by the Scottish people. Only the Scottish National Party (SNP) promise such a Parliament.

---

If you have any comments (good or bad) on these pages contact hamish@rmplc.co.uk.

---

Previous page Return to Ham's Homepage